PERT Estimation Method Type

Estimate parameters according to the PERT technique:

The three-point estimation technique is used for the construction of an approximate probability distribution based on very limited information. In contrast to simple point estimation, it allows calculating the standard deviation.

Estimated Values

For a PERT estimation, three values will be estimated:

Optimistic

Estimate when all favorable things will happen (all opportunities happen and no threats take place).

Most Likely

Estimate when both favorable and unfavorable conditions will happen.

Pessimistic

Estimate when all unfavorable conditions happen (all threats happen and no opportunities take place).

Calculation

The dependent variable expected time (or effort, duration, cost) will be calculated as a weighted average:

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Where E is the expected time, O is the optimistic Time, M is the most likely time, and P is the pessimistic time and O <= M <= P.

The standard deviation will be calculated as:

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